2025
Why Ocean Freight Rates Are Crashing and How Carriers Are Fighting Back
The global ocean freight market is moving fast, but not in the direction most shippers expected. After months of rate hikes and tight space, spot rates are now crashing, and ocean carriers are scrambling to restore balance.
Here’s what’s happening and how it may impact your bookings in the weeks ahead.
Spot Rates Just Collapsed
Transpacific spot rates have plunged in just a few weeks. Asia–U.S. West Coast lanes dropped by nearly 60% from June to mid-July.
The main reason? Importers front-loaded cargo earlier this year to avoid potential tariff hikes, creating an artificial demand spike. Now, with that window gone, volumes have thinned out, and rates are correcting sharply.
Carriers had also ramped up vessel capacity in anticipation of a strong Q3. That overcapacity, combined with weaker booking volumes, has triggered a rapid drop in pricing:
- Asia to U.S. West Coast: Spot rates have fallen by around 60%.
- Asia to U.S. East Coast: Prices are down around 55%.
- Global Rate Index: Overall ocean shipping rates are declining by 3–5% every week, signaling a fast-moving downturn across multiple trade lanes.
As you can see, this is not a slow cooling; it’s a sharp correction that caught many by surprise.
Carriers Are Responding With Blank Sailings
To prevent further erosion in rates, carriers are canceling voyages aggressively, a tactic known as blank sailings. This reduces the available supply and helps stabilize pricing.
From July 7 to August 10, major alliances have announced 49 blank sailings, with 57% affecting Transpacific eastbound routes. Between July 21–27 alone, 29 sailings were canceled—4% of total planned capacity.
Top targets for these cuts include:
- Transpacific routes (66% of blank sailings)
- Asia–Europe (21%)
- Transatlantic (13%)
We’re already seeing the ripple effects from these blank sailings, as some services are skipping ports, and transit times are shifting.
Our Takeaway as a Freight Forwarder
In our role managing thousands of containers across global routes, we see both sides: the pressure carriers face to protect yields, and the disruptions shippers face when schedules shift suddenly.
Right now, agility is key. Rates may look appealing, but space isn’t guaranteed. That is why we recommend monitoring booking windows closely, building flexibility into routings, and preparing for last-minute changes.
While the soft market offers cost-saving potential, the volatility means businesses need to work even harder to keep shipments moving smoothly.
Bottom line: The next few months will reward proactive planning and strong partnerships, making it more prudent than ever to work with a freight forwarder.
